Monthly Bias (Institutional Gold Trading)

What Is Monthly Bias?

Monthly Bias means:

Which direction is the market most likely to move throughout the entire month?

The Monthly Bias is considered the most powerful timeframe because major institutions, banks, and fund managers use it to identify the long-term market direction.

Step 1 – Check the Monthly (MN) Chart

First, open the Monthly (MN) chart.

Look for:

• Higher High (HH)
• Higher Low (HL)
• Lower High (LH)
• Lower Low (LL)

Example

3200 → 3300 → 3400 → 3500 → 3600

The market is making a new Higher High every month.

➡️ Monthly Bias = Bullish

Step 2 – Mark Major Monthly Support & Resistance

Only mark the strongest key levels.

Example

• Support = 3300
• Resistance = 3600

These levels may remain important throughout the month.

Step 3 – Monthly Liquidity

Mark:

• Previous Month High (PMH)
• Previous Month Low (PML)

Example

• PMH = 3500
• PML = 3300

The market often seeks liquidity around these important levels.

Step 4 – Monthly Order Block

Identify the Bullish or Bearish Monthly Order Block.

Example

If Gold reacts from a Bullish Monthly Order Block:

➡️ The probability of a long-term Buy becomes stronger.

Step 5 – Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG)

Identify the Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG).

If price returns to fill the FVG, there is a high chance of a market reaction.

Step 6 – Premium & Discount

Trading Range:

• Low = 3300

• High = 3600

• Midpoint = 3450

• 3300–3450 = Discount Zone

• 3450–3600 = Premium Zone

Rule

📈 Bullish Bias → Look for Buy opportunities in the Discount Zone.

📉 Bearish Bias → Look for Sell opportunities in the Premium Zone.

Gold Example

• Monthly Trend = Bullish
• Weekly Trend = Bullish
• Daily Trend = Bullish
• Price = Discount Zone

➡️ High-Probability Buy Environment

Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Professional traders follow this sequence:

Monthly (Direction)
        ↓
Weekly (Roadmap)
        ↓
Daily (Bias)
        ↓
H4 (Setup)
        ↓
H1 (Confirmation)
        ↓
M15 / M5 (Entry)

When Timeframes Agree

Example

• Monthly = Buy ✅
• Weekly = Buy ✅
• Daily = Buy ✅

➡️ This is the strongest alignment and provides the highest-probability trading environment.

Another Example

• Monthly = Buy
• Weekly = Sell
• Daily = Sell

➡️ This may indicate that the Weekly and Daily trends are only showing a temporary pullback within the larger Monthly uptrend.

Do not make quick decisions in this situation. Wait for market structure confirmation before entering a trade.

Monthly Trading Plan

At the beginning of every month:

✅ Identify the Monthly Trend.

✅ Mark the Previous Month High and Low.

✅ Draw Major Support & Resistance levels.

✅ Identify the Monthly Order Block.

✅ Mark the Monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG).

✅ Note the dates of all High-Impact Economic News events.

Common Mistakes

❌ Ignoring the Monthly Trend.

❌ Assuming every lower-timeframe move is a new long-term trend.

❌ Determining the Monthly Bias using only one indicator.

🎯 Homework

Open TradingView and analyze Gold (XAUUSD):

1. Identify the Monthly Trend.
2. Mark the Previous Month High (PMH) and Previous Month Low (PML).
3. Draw the Monthly Support and Resistance levels.

4. Write your Monthly Bias:

   • Buy
   • Sell
   • Neutral